2018 Midterm Predictions

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Thomas Carter
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2018 Midterm Predictions

With the midterms looming in a month, I'd like to start a friendly, non-mudslinging prediction thread.

So channel your inner Nostradamus and give us your predictions for November 6th.

Me: Ted Cruz loses in a stunning squeaker in Texas. Bruce Poliquin wins by a very slim margin. Moody/Mills too close to call, will end in a recount.

taxfoe
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I think you're wrong about

I think you're wrong about Cruz but I agree you won't be wrong by much. Since you opened the thread to nationwide predictions, I'll wait on many more until Kavanaugh is confirmed. There are a good half dozen, or so . . MT and ND, frinstance . . races that could come down to incumbent senator's votes.

Toolsmith
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Waiting for a "blue wave"?

Waiting for a "blue wave"?
Thinking the confirmation debacle will motivate leftist voters and leftist women to the polls?

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmatio...

No less than NPR is reporting that it's conservatives, and especially conservative women, who are being motivated... who knew that making it clear just how depraved a leftist future would be could have that effect.

johnw
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I think it will depend on how

I think it will depend on how many illegal unregistered voters the progresssives can bus to the polls....how many people will vote twice and how many precincts will count more votes than registered voters....We have a seen the desperation of the left during the Kavanaugh cruxcifiction....Why would anyone think the vote will be left to the voters?Cruz wins ,.....Janet Mills wins ,anguish wins,(Maine loses)..Poloquin wins....

anonymous_coward
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@Toolsmith:"No less than NPR

@Toolsmith:"No less than NPR is reporting that it's conservatives, and especially conservative women, who are being motivated... who knew that making it clear just how depraved a leftist future would be could have that effect."

fivethirtyeight also noted the effect in the polls. Current forecasts (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/sena...) call for GOP holding the senate (78%) and Dems taking the house (73%, down from 80%).

One would think that Kavanaugh being confirmed would add to GOP complacency but who knows.

Economike
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Complacency?

Complacency?

Maybe it's just my bias, but the cynical, stupid malice of the Dems' smear tactics against Kavanaugh has me fired up - to vote against Democrats.

Mainelion
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You're not the only one...

You're not the only one... 'Mama Bears' Are Angry

BlueJay
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Mama Bears Are Angry -

That Mama Bears Are Angry stands to reason and rightfully so. Good.

In Maine, I think it's very possible that Terry Hayes takes enough votes away from Janet Mills that Moody wins overall. Poliquin squeaks by. angus will win again (Ugh).

And (fingers crossed) Question 1 fails. The Stop the Scam signs are getting the attention of the uninformed public.

Tom C
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The "momma bear" meme is

The "momma bear" meme is dreamed up by pundits and only supported by anecdotes. Who knows where the votes will fall.

I do think more informed and fair-minded voters will have been horrified by the dem tactics during the hearings, and that will swing the elections to the right.

My prediction -

US Senate: Pubs,

US House: 'Pubs by a few seats,

Gubbiner: Moody by plurality, but a a fair chance he loses in the ranked choice. Hate the idea of Mills as gubbiner, because then we can watch things in Maine go downhill and losing a fair amount of the gains over the last 8 years. (Although LePage won against all odds, I think Mills is a slightly better candidate than that wet noodle Michaud.)

Poliquin comfortable in the 2nd.

You heard it here from the horse's... uh... mouth.

Economike
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I believe that ranked choice

I believe that ranked choice will apply only to the US senate and house races. Moody could win with a simple plurality.

Tom C
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Really?

Really?

Well, that's confusing.

johnw
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I was told the same thing

I was told the same thing ranked choice doesn’t apply to the governors race

Thomas Carter
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RCV is restricted to for the

RCV is restricted to the offices of U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress ONLY.

https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/rankedchoicefaq.html

anonymous_coward
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@Economike: "Maybe it's just

@Economike: "Maybe it's just my bias, but the cynical, stupid malice of the Dems' smear tactics against Kavanaugh has me fired up - to vote against Democrats."

You're definitely not wrong. Avennatti's antics really really did not help the cause - I hope he shut the hell up from now on.

taxfoe
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' . . There's one number you

' . . There's one number you will almost never hear: More than 1,030 seats . .

That sobering number is the total of all of the seats — including Congress, state legislatures, and governorships — lost by the Democratic Party over Obama's two terms . . "

SOURCE
_____________________________________________________________________________

That's my prediction . . it's about to happen again. I sincerely believe that, once again, the Ds are going to pay for the shenanigans they have been caught perpetrating.

The protester's noise can be bullhorned by the complicit media but the media can't make more of them. Their bullshit will be met by a deafening, record mid-term turnout.

knucklehead
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What johnw said - depends on

What johnw said - depends on voter fraud - college kids from away, dead or nonresident voters, etc.. Situation ethics among the elitists vs rule of law.

Mainelion
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Yes remember the Maine case

Yes remember the Maine case prosecuted for election tampering when John Martin's (D legislator for life, Eagle Lake) chief lackey was caught with boxes of uncounted ballots. I'm sure that the Maine Dems never did anything like that again... or maybe they just got better at it.

Practice makes perfect.

Calvin
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corrupt registrar of voters

corrupt registrar of voters

If you have a corrupt registrar of voters, it is easy to have a "special list" of extra voters that can break a close race. Not at all uncommon for legislative seats to be won by less than a dozen votes.

Robert Reed
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I see the "blue wave" as

I see the "blue wave" as having turned into a death spiral and the more it spins the worse and more hateful it becomes, and then the more desparate they become to reverse it, only causing it to spin more. Antifa, Kavanuahg protestors and other actions have fired up conservative thoughts and likely will lead to a great day at the polls for the GOP. Moody will win Blaine house with 49%, Poliquin will roll to big victory in 2nd and Angus will remain in power by a narrow margin

Melvin Udall
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"Jobs or Mobs?" Love it!

"Jobs or Mobs?"

Love it!

Melvin Udall
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Trump is still President.

Trump is still President.

Mike G
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If King remains in the Senate

If King remains in the Senate it will show the idiocracy of the Maine voter. Such a useless individual should not be allowed to remain in the US Senate, he is nothing but a rubber stamp for the UN uselessness and robot socialist/war handouts.

Reminds we of the chattel that roamed through the Union Fair looking to get a campaign button for their collection.

The robot voter, no access to real news or the internet, but just, he looks nice on the TV and didn't he get my kid a laptop that he trashed before droning out on that rather than the TV.

But Trump will still be president and the permanent state will still be pushing all the buttons

johnw
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I think the current double

I think the current double dipping commercial running against janet "the entiltled " mills is really hitting home with lots of Mainers....I predict a Moody win by a thin margin.

Bruce Libby
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Kind of interesting to see ,

Kind of interesting to see , particularly on the dem. side who isn't running and stayed out of race.
Not that the R side was flush with candidates either.
Here is my assessment:
Hayes not a factor ,debate appearance wasn't inspiring
Caron not what he did to go to jail, it is just his liberal revolution bullshit that followed it. Has done a lot accomplished little on other peoples money.
Mills running against LePage , totally a disaster in the making. I can see another King administration.
Moody ,not excited with him and hope he has some good support in an administration if successful . Come on second district.

Congress:
I hope King gets done in and same for Pingree. Poliguin will be OK ,but close.
I am not sure Brakey has been tough enough on Anguish.

JackStrawFromWichita
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New polling data out for what

New polling data out for what they’re worth:

Two polls with both tied and less than 50% (ranked choice kicks in?):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/me/maine_2nd_distric...

King is way up, not surprised. Brakey is a joke:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/me/maine_senate_bra...

Huh?, Mills up 8 points:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/me/maine_governor...

anonymous_coward
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My prediction, which is not

My prediction, which is not hard to make, House goes blue, Senate goes red.
Dems stupidly open up impeachment proceedings which directly leads to a 2020 victory by Trump.

Toolsmith
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If the Dems had simply stuck

If the Dems had simply stuck to the civility argument, without the uncivil behavior and inciteful hate speech, they might win easily.

Acting like violent mobs and totalitarian hypocrites only serves to push many who might otherwise consider them away.

I will NEVER vote for any party that considers harassing people at their homes, in restaurants or other public places, or violent protests acceptable.

NEVER.

Robert Reed
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The blue wave we've been

The blue wave we've been threatened with?

At this point likely less than a ripple n a tide pool...

Thomas Carter
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Pingree wins big in the first

Pingree wins big in the first district. Angus King annihilates his opponents to remain senator.

Elsewhere, Gillum will win the Florida gubernatorial race. Lyin' Ted Cruz (whose wife is a dog and his daddy killed JFK) is headed for defeat.

anonymous_coward
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@Toolsmith: "If the Dems had

@Toolsmith: "If the Dems had simply stuck to the civility argument, without the uncivil behavior and inciteful hate speech, they might win easily."

The senate was never easy based on the map. In addition to keeping Missouri and Nevada, the Dems would have to take Tennessee and North Dakota, two very red states.

Toolsmith
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If the pollaganda fails...

If the pollaganda fails...

https://townhall.com/columnists//michaelhammond/2018/10/26/no-blue-wave-...

Year after year, Democrats run the same election strategy. It starts with the phony polls intended to demoralize the Republican base.

Sometimes it works and the GOP destroys its own candidates (as with Todd Akin, Roy Moore, etc.). Media predictions become self-fulfilling.

But when Republicans don’t give up, as in 2016, the dishonesty of the polling ultimately becomes apparent.

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